-=Dark_Angel=-, P.I.3 Mar 2006

Skimming through this thread gave me a headache.

By A do you mean "200 people will be saved, and 400 will die"? Perhaps I'm nitpicking, but suppose I save 600 people with program X. It's still the case that program X saved 200 people (it's just that it saved some more that aren't mentioned). Do you see my point? The same thing holds for C. Presumably it's meant to say "If C is adopted 400 people will die, and 200 will be saved"

Given that natural interpretation, I'd choose A (equivalently C) because A and B have the same expected lives saved, but B has higher volatility. A has 0 volatility. A Gentleman does not play dice with the universe.